STREETWISE ECONOMICS
Global Markets Weekly Wrap · Issue #3 · March 20, 2026
Nothing in this publication constitutes investment advice. All content is for educational and informational purposes only. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
By Isaac Jonas, Founder, Streetwise Economics
Published March 20, 2026 · Data as of market close, March 19, 2026
Markets closed out a bruising week on Thursday with the same question that has dominated every trading session since late February: how long can this last, and what does it mean if it does? The Iran conflict is now approaching its fourth week. The Federal Reserve has delivered its verdict on rates. Canada is wrestling with the dual pressure of weakening employment and resurgent energy inflation. And on Thursday alone, oil briefly touched $119 per barrel before pulling back — a swing that tells you everything you need to know about the uncertainty that defines this moment. This is what happened, what it means, and what to watch in the week ahead.
UNITED STATES
The Fed Holds — and the Market Heard Something It Did Not Like
On Wednesday, March 18, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% — its second consecutive pause in 2026. The decision itself was expected. What unsettled markets was the language that accompanied it. As reported by CNBC, NBC News, and Al Jazeera, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that higher energy prices will push overall inflation higher in the near term, while cautioning that it is “too soon to know” the full economic impact of the Middle East conflict. “The thing I really want to emphasize is that nobody knows,” Powell told reporters.
The Fed’s updated dot plot — its internal forecast of where rates are headed — now shows just one cut expected for all of 2026, with seven of the 19 FOMC participants favouring no cuts at all this year, according to Charles Schwab and CNBC. The lone dissenting vote at the meeting came from Stephen Miran, President Trump’s nominee to the Fed, who pushed for a 0.25% cut. Meanwhile, Trump himself escalated his public pressure on Powell on Thursday, signalling continued support for a Department of Justice investigation into the Fed Chair — a political dynamic that adds institutional uncertainty to an already complex monetary picture, as reported by CNBC.
Strategists at Macquarie, writing after the Fed decision, now believe the central bank’s next move will not be a cut — but a hike, likely in the first half of 2027. Markets, as of Thursday, were no longer pricing in a cut until October 2027.
The market reaction over two days was significant. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 768 points — its worst day of 2026 — closing at 46,225. The S&P 500 declined 1.36% to 6,624 and the Nasdaq dropped 1.46% to 22,152, as reported by The Globe and Mail. By Thursday’s close, a partial recovery was underway. As reported by CNBC, the S&P 500 fell a further 0.27% to finish at 6,606, the Nasdaq slid 0.28% to 22,090, and the Dow lost another 204 points to close at 46,021 — marking the second consecutive losing session for all three major averages. The VIX volatility index, a measure of market anxiety, surged to 27.60 before settling back.
The S&P 500 has now declined roughly 3,7% in 2026 and the Dow is on pace for its worst month since 2022, according to Charles Schwab. Its forward price-to-earnings ratio, while off the year’s peak of 22, remains at 20.9 — still above the five-year average of 20 — meaning valuations are not cheap enough to act as a natural cushion if earnings guidance begins to fall. Honeywell International sounded that warning this week, saying the conflict could hurt first-quarter revenue.
On the corporate front, Micron Technology was the notable story. Despite reporting earnings of $12.20 per share on revenue of $23.86 billion — both well ahead of expectations — the stock fell 3.8% as investors fixated on the company’s heavy capital expenditure plans for AI infrastructure, as reported by 24/7 Wall Street. FedEx provided the week’s brighter note, reporting strong third-quarter results and raising its full-year outlook. The company also confirmed it remains on track to spin off its freight division by June 1, 2026.
CANADA
2026 Gains in Jeopardy as Gold Drags the TSX Down
Canada’s equity markets had a difficult week, and Thursday was particularly sharp. According to Bloomberg, gold fell for a seventh consecutive session on Thursday, dragging the S&P/TSX Composite Index down as much as 2.3% intraday — putting Canada’s benchmark index at risk of erasing all of its 2026 gains. The TSX closed Wednesday down 1.87% at 32,312, and continued lower through Thursday’s session, as reported by Trading Economics and The Globe and Mail. Agnico Eagle Mines and Barrick Mining were among the largest point contributors to the slide, each falling more than 6%.
The TSX’s unusual vulnerability this week is explained by its composition. Unlike the S&P 500, the Canadian index carries a heavy weighting in materials — particularly gold miners — which are suffering not because of weak gold fundamentals, but because a stronger U.S. dollar following the hawkish Fed decision has suppressed gold prices even as geopolitical risk rises. Energy stocks were the lone exception, with Canadian Natural Resources and Imperial Oil edging higher as oil prices climbed. The S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index gained 2.18%, according to Yahoo Finance Canada. Royal Bank and TD Bank each fell over 1% as rising bond yields pressured the financial sector.
The macro backdrop in Canada remains complicated. Statistics Canada’s February inflation reading of 1.8% — reported last week by BNN Bloomberg — looked encouraging on the surface. But as energy economists have since noted, that data was collected before the oil shock hit. With Canadian gasoline prices climbing sharply since the Strait of Hormuz closure, the Bank of Canada — which held its overnight rate steady at 2.25% on Wednesday — faces the same dilemma as the Fed: an inflation problem driven by geopolitical supply shocks that monetary policy cannot solve. Canada’s labour market, which shed 84,000 positions in February and pushed unemployment to 6.7%, adds a further layer of difficulty to the BoC’s calculus.
GLOBAL MARKETS
Oil’s Wild Thursday: From $119 to $108 in a Single Session
Thursday’s oil market told the story of this conflict better than any analyst could. Brent crude futures surged as high as $119 per barrel in early trading — the second time it had breached that level since the war began — as Iran struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG export complex, the world’s largest, and escalated attacks across Gulf energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. Then, in afternoon trading, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a press conference that Israel was helping the United States reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and that Iran had lost its ability to enrich uranium and make ballistic missiles. He added that the war may end sooner than people think. Brent gave back most of its gains, settling at $108.65 — still up 1.18% on the day — while WTI settled at $96.14, according to CNBC and Yahoo Finance.
Goldman Sachs estimated this week that the effective closure of the Strait has cut roughly 16.1 million barrels per day of oil flows — even accounting for pipeline redirections. Physical spot prices for Gulf crude grades surged to $166.80 per barrel on Thursday, a level far above futures prices that analysts say could signal further upward pressure ahead.
The geopolitical picture expanded further on Thursday. According to CBS News, leaders of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan issued a joint statement expressing readiness to contribute to efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait. The Trump administration authorized a 30-day waiver on sanctions for Russian crude already loaded on tankers — a short-term move described by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as a narrowly tailored measure to promote stability in global energy markets.
The broader geopolitical stakes were captured this week in an analysis published by the Financial Times by a Cornell University professor and author of The Economic Weapon. The piece argued that the era of American dominance in economic warfare is effectively over — that both China’s rare earth retaliation in 2025 and Iran’s Strait closure represent adversaries adopting America’s own playbook of economic coercion. For investors with global exposure, this is not an abstract geopolitical observation. It is a structural shift in how supply chain risk should be priced.
UNCERTAINTY
What Nobody Knows — And Why That Matters
Let us be straightforward about something. No newsletter, no analyst, no central bank model, and no algorithm can tell you with confidence what markets will do next week. This week alone, Brent oil moved from below $100 to $119 and back to $108 within a single trading session. If that does not illustrate the limits of forecasting, nothing will.
What we do know is this: duration matters more than the initial shock. As Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, observed in an interview with CNBC on Thursday, the early assumption that the conflict would end quickly is fading. “Even when it does end, we are certainly not going back to levels in commodity prices prior to the beginning of the war,” he said. Economist EJ Antoni, quoted by 24/7 Wall Street, put it plainly: “I don’t think this is an economy that is going to be able to handle $100 a barrel for oil.” Bank of America’s analyst Paulina Strzelinska offered a more measured view, noting that growth expectations remain positive and that the environment most resembles the risk-on shocks absorbed between 2005 and 2009 — difficult, but not recessionary.
The truth is that all three outcomes — soft landing, stagflation, or genuine de-escalation rally — remain on the table. Position accordingly.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
1. Strait of Hormuz developments. Netanyahu’s comments on Thursday injected the first genuine hope of de-escalation. Any diplomatic progress — or fresh escalation — will immediately move oil and everything downstream from it.
2. U.S. inflation data. The next CPI and PCE readings will be the first to reflect the oil price pass-through. These numbers will shape the Fed’s language heading into its April meeting, approximately six weeks away.
3. Fed commentary. With markets now pricing no cut until October 2027, any signal from FOMC members — in speeches, minutes, or interviews — that the stance is softening or hardening will move rates and equities.
4. Bank of Canada signals. The BoC holds a hawkish position against a backdrop of weak labour data and building energy inflation. Watch for any shift in tone from Governor Macklem and its impact on the Canadian dollar and financials.
5. S&P 500 technical levels. The index is hovering near its 200-day moving average. A sustained close below this level historically triggers institutional de-risking. The November closing low of 6,538 is the next meaningful support.
6. Gold’s unusual behaviour. Gold is selling off despite the conflict — a stronger dollar is overriding traditional safe-haven demand. Watch whether this correlation holds or breaks down as the situation evolves.
7. Energy sector leadership. Energy is the only S&P 500 sector that has held up in March. How long it can carry investor sentiment — and whether new sector leadership emerges — will be critical to the market’s next directional move.
ABOUT STREETWISE ECONOMICS
Streetwise Economics is an independent financial education and economic consulting brand founded by Isaac Jonas — economist, content creator, and long-term disciplined investor based in Abbotsford, British Columbia. With over a decade of experience spanning Africa, North America, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, Isaac brings a perspective to global markets that most Canadian commentators cannot: one shaped by firsthand work in frontier economies, commodity-dependent nations, and development finance across four continents.
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Streetwise Economics · Global Markets Weekly Wrap · Issue #3 · March 20, 2026
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from CNBC, Bloomberg, BNN Bloomberg, The Globe and Mail, Charles Schwab, Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, NBC News, Al Jazeera, CBS News, 24/7 Wall Street, and Financial Times.
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