Weekly Market Update

Week Ending April 2, 2026

By Isaac Jonas, Principal Consultant & Founder

Disclaimer: This report is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not personal financial advice and is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

What Happened This Week

Markets were driven by two dominant forces this week: the escalating conflict in the Middle East and shifting expectations around diplomacy between the United States and Iran. The result was a volatile mix of sharp rallies and sudden sell-offs across global equities, energy, and safe-haven assets.

President Trump’s televised address on Wednesday evening, in which he signalled an intensification of military operations against Iran, sent shockwaves through markets. Oil surged over 5%. Equities dipped sharply in pre-market trading. However, earlier in the week, optimism about a potential diplomatic resolution had fuelled a broad global rally — including the best single-day gain for the Nikkei 225 since April 2025.

US markets will be closed on Friday, April 3, in observance of Good Friday. The March nonfarm payrolls report will still be released Friday morning, setting up a potentially volatile Monday open.

US Markets

After Monday’s strong rally — the Dow surged over 1,100 points to end March on a high — sentiment reversed sharply following Trump’s Wednesday night address. On Thursday, the Dow futures dropped more than 600 points before recovering. The S&P 500 traded near flat to slightly negative, while the Nasdaq edged lower. Small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 showed relative strength, gaining nearly 3%.

Sector-wise, energy stocks outperformed on the oil price spike, while consumer discretionary and airlines were hit hardest. Tesla fell approximately 4% after reporting weak first-quarter deliveries. The VIX remains elevated in the mid-20s, well above the long-run average of 17–20, reflecting persistent uncertainty.

Canadian Markets

The TSX showed resilience on Thursday, gaining roughly 73 points to trade above 33,000. The Canadian market continues to benefit from its heavy energy sector weighting, as surging crude oil prices lift producers. Financial stocks also contributed, with the major banks trading higher.

For context, the TSX concluded March with a decline of approximately 4.6%. The technology sub-index has been particularly hard-hit, falling over 26% year-to-date as capital rotated into energy producers. Shopify, for example, is down nearly 30% on the year.

Global Markets

Japan’s Nikkei 225 had its biggest single-day rally since April 2025 earlier this week, surging over 5% on ceasefire hopes. European markets gave back gains on Thursday after digesting Trump’s escalation speech. The OECD cut its eurozone growth forecast for 2026 from 1.2% to 0.8%, and the UK forecast from 1.2% to 0.7%, citing the Middle East conflict as the primary drag.

In Asia, the Hang Seng fell about 1% and the Shanghai Composite was down 0.7%. The oil shock is now a headwind for energy-importing economies across the region, with the Philippines having declared an energy emergency.

Commodities

Oil: The Dominant Story

Brent crude surged above $108 per barrel and WTI pushed past $105, both jumping over 5% on Thursday after Trump’s speech signalled a prolonged military engagement. The 52-week range for WTI has been enormous — from roughly $55 to over $113 — reflecting how dramatically the Iran conflict has reshaped energy markets.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the critical risk factor. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through this chokepoint. Any escalation or de-escalation around it has been moving oil prices by several dollars in a single session. For consumers, this means higher gas prices and higher input costs for businesses, feeding directly into inflation expectations.

Gold: Recovering From Its Worst Month in 20 Years

Gold pulled back around 2.4% on Thursday, trading near $4,670 per ounce after a four-day winning streak. Despite the daily pullback, gold has risen roughly 49% over the past year. March was gold’s worst month in nearly two decades, with a decline of almost 12%, but the metal has staged a sharp recovery into April.

The World Gold Council projects central banks will purchase approximately 850 tonnes of gold in 2026. China’s central bank has been buying for more than 15 consecutive months. Gold remains a structural hedge against uncertainty and currency debasement, even if short-term volatility continues.

Key Themes to Watch

1. Geopolitics Remain the Dominant Driver

The US–Iran conflict, the status of the Strait of Hormuz, and any diplomatic signals will continue to dictate short-term market direction. Expect elevated volatility until there is meaningful clarity.

2. Oil Prices and Inflation

With Brent above $100 and WTI near $105–109, energy costs are feeding directly into inflation expectations. This complicates the Federal Reserve’s rate path and raises stagflation concerns.

3. March Nonfarm Payrolls

The jobs report drops Friday while US markets are closed for Good Friday. Weekly jobless claims came in at 202,000 this week, below the 215,000 expected, suggesting the labour market remains resilient. Monday’s open will react to this number.

4. Earnings Season Approaches

Q1 2026 results will begin flowing in soon. Watch for commentary on energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and forward guidance — that’s where the real signal will be.

The Bottom Line

This has been a week of whiplash. One day markets rally hard on peace hopes, the next they sell off on escalation rhetoric. Through it all, the fundamentals of diversification and long-term discipline remain the same. Elevated oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and inflation risks define the current environment. The investors who stay informed, think clearly, and avoid emotional decision-making will be best positioned for whatever comes next.

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Isaac Jonas is the Principal Consultant and Founder of Streetwise Economics, an independent economic consulting practice based in British Columbia, Canada. He holds a Master of Food and Resource Economics and an MA in Resource, Environment and Sustainability from UBC, and a BSc Economics from the University of Zimbabwe.

This content is educational and informational only. It is not personal financial advice.